Investment criteria

What I invest in, at which stage, and how I assess a business. Fully digital or hybrid, as long as digital decides how far the company can grow.

Pitch your project How I assess a business

The short version

TL;DR

Thesis: Business models where the path to the customer can be made predictable.
Business models: Software, AI-enabled, e-commerce and brands, platforms, digital services and hybrid models.
Stages: From idea to established company. What I look for changes with the stage.
Region: The DACH region. Good international deals are welcome too.
Assessment: Four questions, eight criteria scored 1 to 5. The weakest score decides the work.
Not a fit: No role for digital in the next stage, no founders who build, no openness on numbers.

Thesis

Where digital decides growth.

Fully digital or hybrid. Digital can be the product itself or the way a business sells, delivers and scales.

I invest in business models where the path to the customer can be made predictable. The industry matters less. What counts is the business model, the margin and the people behind it.

Many companies with a good product stall at the same point: they cannot win customers at a cost the business can carry. Others grow fast, but only as long as someone keeps paying for reach. I look for the space in between: businesses where demand is real, the channel can be measured, and the economics get better as the company grows.

That makes the industry secondary. A software tool, a consumer brand and a local service business can all fit, as long as the path to the customer can be made predictable and the margin supports it.

Sales is part of the thesis: A good product without a reliable path to the customer is not yet a scalable business. That is why I examine the acquisition channel as closely as the product.
Numbers on the table early: An idea gets interesting once it is clear how it makes money. So cost per customer, margin and assumptions come up in the very first call.
Capital with involvement: Where I invest, I work on the areas I have built myself: customer acquisition, funnels and sales. We agree on scope and role beforehand.
Model first, sector second: I do not follow sector trends. I follow business models whose numbers I can understand and influence.

Fit map

Where a business sits matters more than its sector.

Two questions place a business on the map: how much of its growth depends on digital customer acquisition, and how clearly its unit economics can be measured.

Core focus: Digital acquisition drives growth and the numbers can be measured. This is where I invest most readily.
Early, but testable: Growth will come from digital channels, but the numbers are not proven yet. A fit at idea or development stage if the tests are clear.
Selective: Solid, measurable economics, but digital is not central yet. A fit if the next stage of growth is meant to come from digital channels.
Not a fit: Neither digital growth nor measurable numbers in sight.

Fit map

Two paths lead into the core focus: proof through tests, or growth that shifts to digital channels.

Fig. 1Schematic. Where a business sits today matters less than whether it can move towards the top right.

Business models

Six models I invest in.

Each one fits under certain conditions. Here is what interests me, which signals I look for and where I typically come in.

01

Software & digital products

Products that solve a clear problem and can be sold online.
Signals I look for
- A defined buyer and a clear use case
- Data on trial to paid or demo to close
- Churn understood by cohort, not only on average
Where I come in
- Lowering acquisition cost
- Turning trials and demos into revenue
- Pricing and packaging
02

AI-enabled businesses

AI that measurably improves a product, a service or the margin.
Signals I look for
- A benefit customers can measure in time or money
- An advantage that does not depend on a single model provider
- Access to data or workflows that others lack
Where I come in
- Positioning the benefit clearly
- Turning it into a message that sells
- Offer structure and pricing
03

E-commerce & brands

Brands where positioning, advertising and customer experience fit together.
Signals I look for
- Contribution margin after ads, shipping and returns
- Repeat purchase rate
- Creatives that sell without heavy discounts
Where I come in
- Campaign structure and creative testing
- Repeat purchases through email and messenger
- Offer and bundle structure
04

Platforms & marketplaces

Models that connect supply and demand and have a clear way to market.
Signals I look for
- One side that is clearly harder to win
- Liquidity in a defined niche or region
- A take rate that covers acquisition
Where I come in
- Winning the side of the market that limits growth
- Paid acquisition for that side
- Onboarding that turns sign-ups into activity
05

Digital services

Service businesses that can make sales and delivery repeatable.
Signals I look for
- A productised offer with a clear scope
- Delivery that does not depend on the founders alone
- Data on sales cycle and close rate
Where I come in
- Predictable lead generation
- A sales process with clear roles
- Setter and closer structures
06

Hybrid businesses

Physical products or local operations that grow through digital channels.
Signals I look for
- Unit economics per location or product
- Demand that can be reached online
- Capacity to serve more customers
Where I come in
- Local and wider demand through digital channels
- Tracking offline sales back to campaigns
- Booking and enquiry funnels

Stages

From idea to established company.

What I want to see changes with the stage. So does my contribution.

How work after an investment starts

Where my time goes, by stage

The focus shifts from positioning towards acquisition, sales and new channels.

Positioning & offer
Paid acquisition
Funnels & conversion
Sales process
New channels & efficiency

1Idea

Main focus: positioning, offer and first demand tests.

2In development

Main focus: funnel, landing page and the first paid campaigns.

3Operating

Main focus: scaling channels, structuring sales, lowering cost per customer.

4Established

Main focus: new channels, new markets, more efficiency in existing acquisition.

Fig. 2Schematic share of my working time by area. The actual focus depends on the business and its bottleneck.

Idea

What I want to see

A clear problem, a defined target group and founders who will build it themselves.

My contribution

Positioning, offer and first demand tests.

Key question

Who buys first, and how can demand be tested before the product is finished?

Capital typically goes to

First tests and a first version of the product.
In development

What I want to see

A first version of the product and first conversations with real customers.

My contribution

Funnel, landing page and the first paid campaigns.

Key question

Which message converts, and what does a lead cost?

Capital typically goes to

Finishing the product and a first acquisition budget.
Operating

What I want to see

Revenue and first numbers on cost per customer and conversion.

My contribution

Scaling channels, structuring sales, lowering cost per customer.

Key question

Which channel scales, and where do prospects drop off?

Capital typically goes to

Acquisition budget and the sales team.
Established

What I want to see

A stable business that wants to keep growing through digital channels.

My contribution

New channels, new markets and more efficiency in existing acquisition.

Key question

Which channel is underused, and which market comes next?

Capital typically goes to

Expansion and new channels.

Evidence of demand

Not all demand is equal.

Evidence of demand ranges from opinions to customers who bring other customers. The higher up the ladder, the less an investment depends on hope.

The evidence ladder

Each step costs the customer more: attention, then money, then reputation.

1OpinionsSurveys, likes, friends who say they would buy.
2Sign-upsA waitlist or newsletter. Interest, but at no cost to the person.
3CommitmentDeposits, pre-orders, paid pilots. Money or real time at stake.
4First salesCustomers who paid the full price and do not know the founders.
5RepeatCustomers who buy again or renew. The product delivers what it promised.
6ReferralsCustomers who bring new customers. Demand starts to feed itself.

Fig. 3The step a company has reached matters more than how much activity it shows on the lower steps.

What I expect by stage

At idea stage, step 3 is a strong signal: someone committed money or real time before the product was finished. For an operating company, I want to see steps 4 and 5 in the numbers, with step 6 as a sign that growth can get cheaper over time.

The most common mistake

Treating step 1 as step 4. Ten people saying “I would buy that” is not the same as one person paying. A small paid test is worth more than a large survey, and it is often cheaper.

Assessment

How I assess a business.

Four guiding questions shape every review. The earlier they are answered, the faster a decision is made.

What the review covers

Four questions, one decision

Each question looks at the business from a different side. A decision needs all four.

Fig. 4The four guiding questions. Each one is explained in the table below.

Review areas, guiding questions and criteria
Area	Guiding question	What I look at
Demand	Who is the customer, and why do they buy?	What I look atA clearly defined target group, a provable reason to buy, first revenue, pre-sales or waitlists.
Channel	How does the business reach that customer?	What I look atExisting acquisition channels, cost per lead and per customer by channel, room for paid reach.
Economics	What is left after the cost of winning and serving them?	What I look atContribution margin per customer, payback period on acquisition cost, ratio of customer value to acquisition cost.
Execution	What has to change before growth becomes repeatable?	What I look atBottlenecks in sales, processes and team. A realistic plan for the next twelve months.

Evidence that helps, and common gaps

Demand

Revenue, pre-sales or a waitlist
Customer quotes on why they bought

Common gap: a target group that is “everyone”.

Channel

Cost per lead and per customer by channel
Results of the first paid tests

Common gap: growth that comes only from the founders’ own network.

Economics

Contribution margin per customer
Payback period on acquisition cost

Common gap: margins that ignore ads, payment fees or returns.

Execution

Who owns which part of growth
A twelve-month plan with milestones

Common gap: a plan that needs more capital than is being raised.

A scorecard, not a gut feeling

Each guiding question breaks down into two criteria, scored from 1 to 5. The average says little. The weakest score says where the money and the work have to go.

Example scorecard of a fictional company

Strong demand and margin, weak room to scale and no clear plan.

Average score3.25
Weakest score2

Fig. 5Criteria by guiding question: demand (target group, reason to buy), channel (proof, room to scale), economics (margin, payback), execution (team, plan).

The question is not whether 3.25 is good enough. It is whether room to scale and the plan can be fixed in the first months, and what that costs.

Numbers for the first call

Revenue and how it developed over recent months
Cost per lead and per customer
Conversion rates along the funnel
Contribution margin per customer
Repeat purchase or churn rate
Capital need and planned use

No numbers yet? Then the assumptions count, and how you plan to test them.

Working with assumptions

“We assume a lead costs less than €30 on Meta. Test: €1,500 over two weeks with three ad angles. If the cost per lead stays above €45, we change the offer before we build further.”

Fictional example. A good assumption states the number, the test, its cost, the time frame and what happens if it fails.

Unit economics

The numbers behind a decision.

Unit economics show whether growth creates value or only costs money. Here is how I read them, with a worked example.

All metrics along the funnel

Key unit economics and how they are calculated
Metric	How it is calculated	What it tells me
Customer acquisition cost (CAC)	How it is calculatedAll acquisition costs divided by the number of new customers.	What it tells meWhat one new customer really costs, including ads, sales and tools.
Contribution margin	How it is calculatedRevenue per customer minus variable costs such as product, delivery, payment fees and returns.	What it tells meHow much each customer contributes before fixed costs.
Payback period	How it is calculatedAcquisition cost divided by the monthly contribution margin per customer, adjusted for churn.	What it tells meHow long growth ties up capital before it pays for itself.
Customer value	How it is calculatedContribution margin over a fixed period, for example twelve months, after churn.	What it tells meWhat a customer is worth within a horizon the business can plan for.
Value to cost ratio	How it is calculatedCustomer value divided by acquisition cost.	What it tells meWhether each euro spent on acquisition comes back, and how many times.

Where the margin goes

One online order of €100, from price to contribution after acquisition.

Price€100
Product cost−€30
Payment fees−€3
Shipping−€8
Returns−€5
Before ads€54
Ads per order−€35
Contribution€19

Fig. 6Fictional e-commerce example. The pitch shows a 70% gross margin. What is left after acquisition is 19%.

Gross margin is not the point

Many pitches show the gross margin, here 70%. What decides whether growth creates value is the contribution after acquisition, here €19 per order. That is the money that pays for fixed costs and the next round of growth.

Small shifts, big effect

If ads cost €55 per order instead of €35, the same business loses €1 on every first order. It then lives on repeat purchases, and retention becomes the whole case.

When does a customer pay back?

Cumulative contribution margin per customer against the cost of acquiring that customer.

Cumulative contribution per customer
Acquisition cost
Margin after payback

Fig. 7Illustrative example with invented numbers: €150 acquisition cost, €40 contribution margin per customer per month, 5% monthly churn.

Worked example

Acquisition cost per customer: €150
Contribution margin per month: €40
Monthly churn: 5%
Payback: After about 4 months
Contribution after 12 months: €368
Value to cost ratio: 2.5 : 1

There is no universal threshold. What matters is that the numbers are measured, that they improve as the company learns, and that the payback period fits the capital available.

A business with a short payback can fund much of its own growth. A long payback needs more capital and more certainty that customers stay.

In the example, a customer has paid back their acquisition cost after about four months. After twelve months, each euro spent on acquisition has come back about two and a half times as contribution margin.

Retention

Do customers stay?

A retention curve that flattens means the product has a real base of customers. One that keeps falling means growth only covers the leak.

Why churn sets a ceiling

Retention is the most honest number a company has. Ads can buy a first purchase. Only the product earns the second one.

I look at retention by cohort: all customers who started in the same month, followed over time. Averages mix old and new customers and hide whether things are getting better or worse.

Two retention curves

Share of a starting group of customers still active, month by month.

Fig. 8Schematic. The level where a curve flattens is the real customer base. Where it never flattens, every customer eventually has to be replaced.

Cohort table

Share of each monthly cohort still active. M1 is the first month after the first purchase. Read down a column to see whether newer customers stay longer.

M0M1M2M3M4M5Jan100%66%54%49%46%45%Feb100%68%56%51%48%Mar100%71%60%55%Apr100%73%63%May100%75%Jun100%

Fig. 9Fictional data. Month-1 retention rose from 66% for January customers to 75% for May customers. Whatever changed in onboarding worked.

How I read it

Does the curve flatten, and at which level?
Do newer cohorts start higher than older ones?
Where is the biggest drop, and what happens there?

What usually moves it

An onboarding that delivers a first result fast
Sales promises that match what is delivered
Contact in the weeks when most customers leave

Not a fit

What does not fit.

Saying this early saves time on both sides.

No role for digital in the next stage: If growth will not come from digital channels in the next stage either, my experience adds little.
Ideas without builders: I invest in founders who build the business themselves, not in ideas that are still looking for a team.
Closed books: If numbers and assumptions are not meant to be shared, a serious assessment is not possible.
Growth that only works with unlimited budget: If every customer costs more than they will ever bring in, more capital only makes the loss larger.
Plans without a test: Large plans with no cheap way to test the core assumption first.

Region

The focus is the DACH region. Good international deals are welcome too. My existing holdings operate in Switzerland, Cyprus and internationally.

Ticket size

There is no fixed ticket. Size and form depend on the business, its stage and my role. Structures in detail.

Questions

Questions about the criteria.

More about how I invest.

Next step

Tell me what you are building.

A few sentences are enough: what the business does, where the digital part sits and what you need. A reply on whether a call makes sense follows.

Pitch your project See the process

Investment criteria

The short version

Software & digital products

AI-enabled businesses

E-commerce & brands

Platforms & marketplaces

Digital services

Hybrid businesses

Idea

In development

Operating

Established